2004~2013年绵阳市结核病发病的生态学趋势研究

Ecological Trendofthe Incidence of Tuberculosis in Mianyang City During 2004-2013

中文关键词:  结核病 生态学研究 绵阳

英文关键词:Tuberculosis Ecologic study Mianyang

中文摘要:

      目的 分析2004~2013年绵阳市结核病发病率的变化趋势，探讨生态学影响因素与结核病发病的关系。方法 收集2004~2013年绵阳市的结核病发病资料并进行描述性分析，应用双变量关联分析探讨结核病发病率的相关生态学影响因素，并以生态学影响因素为自变量，结核病发病率为因变量，建立多元线性回归模型。结果 2004～2013年绵阳市结核病发病率呈下降趋势；双变量关联分析结果显示，经济因素及卫生资源因素与结核病发病率呈负相关，人口密度与结核病发病率呈正相关，利用主成分分析消除自变量间共线性后，得到多元线性回归方程：y=117.692-1.467x₁-1.145x₂-1.961x₃-4.777x₄-2.690x₅-6.181x₆+82.234x₇-2.721x₈-0.351x₉-0.382x₁0。该方程结果显示，结核病发病率（y)随着人均GDP（x₁）、职工平均货币工资（x₂）、城镇居民人均可支配收入（x₃）、农村人均纯收入（x₄）、城镇居民人均消费性支出（x₅）、农村居民人均生活消费支出（x₆）、每千人口拥有执业（助理）医师人数（x₈）、城镇化率（x₉）、城镇居民人均现住房建筑面积（x₁0）的增加而下降；随着人口密度（x₇）的增加而增加。结论 结核病发病可能与社会经济、卫生资源、人口密度有关联，多元线性回归模型反映了结核病发病与多个生态学影响因素间的线性关系，也可用于结核病发病的预测。

英文摘要:

      Objective To determine the trend of the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in Mianyang City during 2004-2013 and its ecological determinants. Methods Linear correlations between TB incidence and ecological factors were analyzed using the data collected in Mianyang City from 2004 to 2013. A multivariate linear regression model was established to determine the ecological predictors of TB incidence. Results The incidence of TB in Mianyang City decreased over the period of 2004-2013. Economic development and increased health resources were negatively correlated with TB incidence. Population density was positively correlated with TB incidence. A multivariate linear regression equationon TB incidence (y) was established with the independent variables (x₁ to x₁₀) forming a component (using principal component analysis) to eliminate multicollinearity: y=117.692-1.467x₁-1.145x₂-1.961x₃-4.777x₄-2.690x₅-6.181x₆+82.234x₇-2.721x₈-0.351x₉-0.382x₁0. The incidence of TB decreased with the increases of real GDP per capita (x₁), average wage of workers(x₂), per capita disposable income of urban residents (x₃), rural per capita net income (x₄), per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents (x₅), per capita living consumption expenditure of rural residents (x₆), number of licensed (assistant) physicians per thousand population (x₈), urbanization rate (x₉),and per capita housing construction area of urban (x₁0),while it increased with the increase of density of population (x₇). Conclusion Socio-economic development, health resources and population density are predictors of TB incidence.